Another May 7, 2008 in Lebanon?

-
The Syrian conflict seems to be nearing a clear end- the collapse of the Assad regime. In Lebanon there is talk that the Hizbullah is looking to reach some compromises with the March 14 coalition. These arrangements are sought to lessen the repercussions of the Syrian developments on the political situation in Lebanon.

There is no doubt that the demise of the Assad regime is the biggest challenge faced by the Hizbullah ever- a bigger challenge than it's war with Amal in the 1980s, any of the Israeli wars fought, or the classification of the group as a terrorist organization.

There is talk that the Hizbullah, in order to force concessions, will resort to another May 7, 2008- type operation. This is the operation were Hizbullah and its supporters used force, mainly against the Sunni-led Future Movement and its supporters, in order to force concessions from the March 14th Movement. The use of force worked- it resulted in the Doha Agreement with a veto power for Hizbullah and its lesser allies. However, it resulted in a deep chasm between the Shia and Sunnis in Lebanon that has only been deepening. It also resulted in a change of perception of the group in the Arab and Muslim world- from that of a resistance group to that of an Iranian proxy- a sectarian group intent on harming Sunnis and their interests.

Lebanon today- December 15, 2012, is not Lebanon on the eve of May 7, 2008. It's a transformed country- and not in a good way. Such a gamble by the Hizbullah and its allies will exact huge costs on the Lebanese. The Hizbullah would not be facing poorly- armed security guards with little to no motivation to fight. It will be facing opponents who have been emboldened by the Syrian conflict and the near demise of the Syrian regime. Hizbullah will be facing a Sunni community who, with marginal exceptions, feels threatened, marginalized and humiliated by the Hizbullah. Most importantly, those in the Sunni community who seem eager for a military confrontation with the Hizbullah, a group they see as nothing more than an Iranian proxy, are the highly religious Sunnis, who would be motivated by a sense of sectarian grievance against the group. They would be led by what MP Jumblatt referred to- those with the closely trimmed mustaches and the long beards. These are fighters who are as motivated or even more motivated than the Hizbullah fighters. It will not be a pretty picture.

A decision by the Hizbullah to use its weapons internally, again, for domestic leverage, to force concessions will have disastrous consequences- primarily for the Hizbullah and its supporters. It is possible that  Hizbullah would attempt that but I think it's unlikely because the group has proved itself to be pragmatic and showed a good understanding of Lebanese politics and reality . But if the unlikely happens it will be one of the worst conflicts seen in Lebanon ever- even by the Civil War's standards.   
The Shia Hizbullah would be fighting the Sunni Hizbullah with both sides deeply confident in the validity of their cause and equally confident that dying for it is good for them in this life and in the afterlife. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Response to Amer Zahr’s Sexual Harassment Column

-
Image
Rana Abbas, former ACRL executive director Amer Zahr, Rana Abbas's BFF Response to Amer Zahr’s Sexual Harassment Column The Imad Hamad saga has attracted a motley crew of individuals who joined in for two reasons: 1. To say, without any legal basis for personal knowledge, that the allegations are “true” for a variety of reasons.  2. To say that we basically need no investigation and that Imad should be fired because these two women have made these allegations. Allegation is the key word. Let’s look at the bright side of this sordid affair. Who knew that everyone in our community is a solid supporter of women’s rights? This is great! It really is. However, by God, people will prove it by piling on Imad Hamad before receiving all the facts. Let me make one thing clear. I am not stating these women were not harassed; nor am I stating they were. No one, other than Imad and the women, was in the room when the alleged harassment occurred.  No third party could
Read more

The Lessons of the Wissam Allouche case: About lies, not terrorism

-
Image
Wissam Allouche arrested by the JTTF Flag of the Lebanese Shia Amal Movement The Lessons of the Wissam Allouche case: An American Lebanese Shiite Muslim caught in the government and media dog- and- pony show Wissam Allouche, a Lebanese Shia immigrant from Lebanon was sentenced to five years in prison for lying on his citizenship application and for lying to get a security clearance from the Department of Defense. The US government had asked for a ten- year sentence. Allouche’s criminal case began in 2013 and he was tried and convicted in 2015 in the Western District of Texas district court.  After conviction, the US Attorney for the Western district of Texas issued a press release that read in part: “Jurors found that defendant lied about his previous association with the Amal militia This afternoon in San Antonio, a federal jury convicted 45–year-old Lebanese–born Wissam “Sam” Allouche of knowingly lying to federal authorities on his U.S. citizenship petit
Read more

In Defense of the Dream During the Night of the Long Zionist Nightmare:

-
Image
    “When you were still swinging from trees, we had a state here.”   Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet, speaking to an Arab member of Knesset.     Zionism is Jewish nationalism. Whether the Jews are a people or not, a nation or not, is for the Jews themselves to decide. For Arabs and Muslims, the issue of Zionism is not a theoretical issue. It is how the Zionist project has been carried out in Palestine. It is a settler colonial project that has been inflicting catastrophes on the indigenous people of Palestine. The indigenous people of Palestine include Muslims, Christians and Jews. The Zionist violence in the West Bank and Gaza is the most recent chapter in the settler colonial  book of horrors.    Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib got in trouble with some in the Jewish community for using the common, perfectly moral and just slogan "From the River to the Sea Palestine will be Free." This slogan captures a vision for Mandate Palestine and is a common slogan among the
Read more