Shaykh Al Aseer and the transition from the sectarian cold war to the hot war
There is a threat of a sectarian hot war in Lebanon that puts an end to the long simmering sectarian cold war that started with the assassination of PM Rafiq Hariri.. As of today-the sectarian war, if it were to break out, it would be the result of using force against the al- Aseer and his supporters. If the Hezbollah attacks al Aseer- there is no doubt that the Hezbollah will win-easily. However, it will not be another May 17 operation. Far from it. Lebanon will be firmly on the path of being another post 2003 Iraq. There will be sectarian attacks, suicide bombings etc.- Iraq style. Let's hope not. Not because there are many "mixed marriages" but because sectarian wars, civil wars, are medieval in their brutality and viciousness. There is also the real threat that the Lebanese armed forces and the Lebanese police face significant desertions from Sunni Lebanese who will again see Hezbollah using its military power against their co-religionists while the army and